The killing of Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, the second-in-command of ISIL (ISIS), by United States and Nigerian forces marks a notable achievement for "counterterrorism". Yet for analysts observing the Lake Chad Basin, it highlights how persistent and complex insecurity in the region has become. Al-Minuki, a Nigerian national from Borno State, was operating out of a compound near Lake Chad, at the centre of one of the world's most active armed group theatres. Perhaps equally significant is the parallel resurgence of Boko Haram, which quietly rebuilt itself while security agencies primarily focused on the more dominant ISWAP. "While regional forces focused on countering ISWAP's threats, partly due to the group's advanced drone capabilities, Boko Haram appears to have taken advantage of the relative attention on its rival to regroup," Nimi Princewill, a security expert in the Sahel, told Al Jazeera.

As America increases its military footprint in some of Africa's most dangerous trouble spots, confronting extremist affiliates of Al Qaeda and Islamic State, the risk of intelligence failures and more combat deaths is mounting. U.S. special forces who accompanied Niger's military at a meeting of village leaders in Tongo Tongo on Oct. 4 were working in the country's treacherous western borderlands, a region of shifting tribal allegiances, opaque motives and ethnic grudges going back decades, all feeding into a growing jihadist problem. Four Americans and five Nigerian troops died after leaving Tongo Tongo and being ambushed and heavily outgunned by fighters armed with automatic weapons and rocket-propelled grenades. The militants are believed to be from a Malian-led militia, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahel, which declared allegiance to the overall militant organization in 2015. One error appears to have been downplaying the danger.

It all started at Baledogle, the old Soviet airport 70 miles northwest of Mogadishu, Somalia's capital, where the U.S. runs a deeply clandestine drone operation with around 30 to 40 American personnel. While shrouded in secrecy, Baledogle has reportedly grown over the years into a key point for training Somali commandos and, early last month, for launching a joint strike against al-Shabab. The radical Islamist group grew out of the splintered factions of Sharia-based courts that filled the vacuum of authority after a U.S.-led coalition withdrew from the country in the early 90s. Today, al-Shabab sees itself as the preeminent terror force in Somalia with global ambitions. "These folks are honing their skills in a local conflict that is part of a global war they are waging against the United States," said Katherine Zimmerman, an expert on Al Qaeda at the American Enterprise Institute. Al-Shabab regularly attacks foreigners, including aid workers and Somalis, as it wages an insurgent fight against the U.S.-leaning government.